Fixed-Point Model and Schedule Reliability of Morning Commuting in Stochastic and Time-Dependent Transport Networks

This paper presents a fixed-point model for studying the morning commuting behavior in stochastic and time-dependent transport networks. The model considers the network uncertainty caused by supply and demand variations as well as the commuters’ perception errors on travel disutility. A new performance index called schedule reliability, i.e., the probability that commuters can arrive at destination on time or within a given time threshold early or late, is introduced to evaluate the network service level. The solution algorithm which combines the Monte Carlo simulation approach with the method of successive average is proposed together with a numerical example for demonstration.